Update: The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., released an updated forecast at 7:53 a.m. today.

Severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and hail remain in enhanced risk category for River Country. Enhanced risk is the third highest of five categories.

A cyclone was detected in northern Kansas this morning and damaging winds are reported in eastern Oklahoma.

The report “assumes” the warm front will has “sufficient recovery” during the day for supercell development beginning this afternoon and evening starting in northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska and going into southwest Iowa.

Long-lived supercells could produce strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. The tornado probability is in the 10 percent range, while hail is in the 30 percent range.

Friday weather watch:

11 a.m. Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City expects sunny skies this afternoon with a high temperature in the low 80s. Clouds diminishing at Tulsa at noon with a slight chance of rain.

Storms at Springfield, Mo., through 1 p.m.

12:26 p.m. Tornado warning for Buffalo County near Rockville. Public reports hail form dime to half-dollar size.

 

Thursday report

NORMAN, OKLA. - The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., has portions of River Country listed in the enhanced category for hazardous weather on Friday and Saturday. Enhanced is the third highest of five risk categories.

The enhanced risk category forecast for Friday includes Omaha to Falls City, as well as southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri and western Iowa.

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon Friday with a warm front pushing northward. Low-level wind profiles and deep-layer shear are said to support potential supercells.

Longer-lived supercells that might occur could produce damaging winds along the Pacific-front dryline into southeast Nebraska.

The enhanced risk category moves south out of Nebraska on Saturday  to include northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Portions of southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa remain in the slight risk category on Saturday.

There is a chance that thunderstorms will develop Thursday night with the chance of rain at 90 percent.

 

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night.

A warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern Rockies.

...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO...
Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time.

In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and approaching Pacific front/dryline.

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting supercell potential.


Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the magnitude of destabilization.
A few tornadoes will also be possible, both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA.